The Future of Photovoltaics – Trends and Forecasts for the Next 10 Years
Photovoltaics is dynamically changing the global and Polish energy market. The coming decade will bring breakthrough innovations, falling costs, and a growing role for solar energy in the energy mix. What trends and forecasts are shaping the future of the industry according to experts?
1. Dynamic Growth of PV Capacity and Importance
Experts predict that by 2035, installed PV capacity in Poland may exceed 30 GW, and in Europe and worldwide, PV's share in new energy investments will continue to grow. According to the International Energy Agency, by 2026, photovoltaics and wind will account for 95% of new generation capacity globally.
2. Key Technological Trends
- Bifacial panels – Modules that absorb light from both sides can generate up to 30% more energy than traditional panels. Their popularity is growing, especially on bright roofs, parking lots, and green areas.
- Perovskite cells – Poland is a leader in developing this technology, which offers high efficiency at low production costs. The first commercial perovskite installations are expected by the end of 2025.
- Tandem technologies – Combining different photovoltaic materials allows better use of various light wavelengths, significantly increasing panel efficiency.
- Microinverters and power optimizers – Enable individual management of each panel's operation, increasing the efficiency of the entire system, especially with partial shading or complex roofs.
3. Energy Storage and Smart Management
Integrating energy storage with PV systems is one of the most important development directions. This increases self-consumption, independence from the grid, and better balancing of energy production and consumption.
| Storage Type | Advantages | Application |
|---|---|---|
| Lithium-ion batteries | High energy density, long lifespan | Home PV installations |
| Heat storage | Lower cost, simplicity | Heating systems |
| Hydrogen storage | Large capacity, seasonal use | Industry, energy sector |
4. Falling Costs, Increasing Availability
- Expected PV installation price drop of 20-30% by 2030
- Panel efficiency increase to 25-30%
- Development of BIPV technology (building-integrated photovoltaics)
- Simplification of installation and grid connection procedures
5. Forecasts for the Next Decade
- By 2030, installed PV capacity in Poland may increase fivefold
- By 2050, solar and wind energy may cover up to 70% of global energy demand
- Development of smart energy grids (smart grid)
- Increasing role of prosumers in the energy system
Frequently Asked Questions
When will photovoltaics become the main energy source?
According to forecasts, by 2030 photovoltaics and wind energy may account for over 50% of new generation capacity in the global energy mix.
Is it worth waiting for newer technologies before installing?
Despite technological progress, current solutions are already very efficient. Waiting for new technologies means losing current savings and the opportunity to benefit from available subsidies.
Summary
The next 10 years will be a time of dynamic PV development. Breakthrough technological innovations, further cost reductions, an increased share of PV in the energy mix, and a growing importance of energy storage and smart management systems are expected. Photovoltaics will be one of the pillars of the energy transition in Poland and worldwide.